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Oil rises after US launches fresh strikes against Iran

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Oil prices rose on Thursday after the U.S. launched fresh strikes against Iran, denting hopes for an end to the Iran war and for the full ‌reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for one-fifth of pre-war global oil supplies.

Brent crude futures rose 78 cents, or 1% to $78.8 a barrel by 0054 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 74 cents, or 1.01%, at $74.26 a barrel.

Both crude benchmarks, WTI and Brent, ⁠rose more than a dollar in post-settlement trade on Wednesday after the U.S. military began launching fresh strikes on Iran.

Before that, the benchmarks had settled at their highest in over two weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened fresh strikes against Iran as soon as Wednesday night.

The U.S. military said it was launching fresh strikes on Iran aimed at keeping the critical Strait of Hormuz open to traffic, hours after President Donald Trump declared that an interim agreement to end ‌the ⁠war was “over”.

The rush of oil that passed through the strait in recent weeks is over for now, with shipowners expected to take a more cautious stance, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

The U.S. said its latest round of attacks was ⁠in response to Tuesday’s assault on three tankers transiting the strait. The U.S. attacks rattled several cities along Iran’s southern coast and left some areas without power.

Iran said on ⁠Wednesday it attacked U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait in response to earlier U.S. strikes on infrastructure.

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Some war underwriters have advised shipping companies to pause ⁠voyages through the Strait of Hormuz, and others are reviewing their policy terms after Iran’s renewed vessel attacks, insurance industry sources said on Wednesday.
Reuters

Oil and Gas

At NOG Energy Week, NNPC, Partners Sign Landmark Gas Agreements

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.. Deals Set to Catalyse Industrial Growth, Enhance Nigeria’s Energy Security
By Aliyu Musa

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) today announced the signing of six strategic agreements with key partners, ranging from Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Gas Supply Agreement (GSA), and other gas transportation deals, marking a significant milestone in Nigeria’s journey towards industrial revitalisation and enhanced energy security.

The agreements, executed on the sidelines of the ongoing 25th NOG Energy Week, in Abuja on Tuesday, include: an MoU with Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited (ASCL) ; a Gas Sale Aggregation Agreement (GSAA) with Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited (ASCL); a GSA with UTM FLNG; a Network Entry Agreement with Chevron Nigeria Ltd; a Network Entry Agreement with AGPC, and a Network Entry Agreement with NNPC Exploration & Production Ltd (NEPL).

According to the GCEO NNPC Ltd, Engr. Bayo Bashir Ojulari, the agreements underscore NNPC Ltd.’s commitment to advancing the Federal Government’s gas-based industrialisation agenda, driving sustainable economic growth and enhancing Nigeria’s energy security.

“What we are witnessing today is not just about signing agreements. It is about igniting the engine of Nigeria’s industrialisation. Gas is the key. It is source of revenue and profit. It is also the only product that can have that level of industrial impact on Nigeria, more than any other hydrocarbon.”, Ojulari stated.

He particularly described the agreements as a testament to NNPC Ltd’s shared commitment to transparency, efficiency, and a standardised framework for Nationwide gas utilisation, which will unlock new supply capacity for the domestic market and solidify the role of gas as a catalyst for economic transformation.

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Ojulari noted that the agreements signal a new era of strategic partnerships that will drive local content, enhance energy security and accelerate Nigeria’s journey towards becoming a global industrial powerhouse. He described NNPC Ltd as the partner of choice. “We are on a journey, even as we look forward to greater collaboration with industry partners.”

A cornerstone of the signing ceremony was the agreement with Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited (ASCL). In the MoU, NNPC Ltd. and ASCL commit to extend collaboration beyond gas supply, aiming to catalyse the production of raw materials for oil and gas pipes, a critical enabler for major infrastructure projects such as the African- Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP) and the Escravos -Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) 3.

The MoU is anchored on two major pillars: the revitalisation of the Ajaokuta Steel Complex and the expansion of domestic gas utilisation through the Nigerian Gas Transportation Network Code.

This was complemented by the execution of a 20-year Gas Sale and Aggregation Agreement (GSAA) between NNPC E&P Limited (NEPL), Gas Aggregation Company of Nigeria Ltd/Gte (GACN), and ASCL. This agreement will see the supply of 3MMscf/d of Firm Contract Volumes and 47MMscf/d of Interruptible Contract Volumes to be used as feedstock for the power plant servicing the steel complex .

NNPC Ltd/ Seplat JV also took a major step towards commercialising Nigeria’s vast natural gas resources by signing a 15-year Wet Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (WGSPA) between the NNPC Ltd/Seplat Energy Producing Nigeria Unlimited (SEPNU) Joint Venture and UTM FLNG Ltd.

Under the agreement, the Joint Venture will supply 200 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (MMscf/d) to the UTM Floating LNG (FLNG) project, providing the long-term feedgas certainty required to support financing and position the project for a Final Investment Decision (FID) in the fourth quarter of 2026.

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Further demonstrating its commitment to a regulated and efficient gas market, NNPC Ltd. announced the successful migration of legacy interconnection agreements to the new Nigerian Gas Transportation Network Code. This involved the signing of Network Entry Agreements (NEnAs) with three major gas producers.

These agreements, signed with Chevron Nigeria Limited (CNL), AGPC, and NEPL, will inject up to 800MMscf/d of natural gas into the domestic transportation network. This will serve Nigeria’s power plants, Gas-Based Industries (GBIs), and industrial clusters, significantly enhancing network connectivity and operational flexibility while improving the security of gas supply.

The signing of the various landmark agreements was witnessed by the Honourable Minister of Petroleum (Gas), Rt. Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo; Honourable Minister of Petroleum ( Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri; Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Ms. Olu Verheijen; Commission Chief Executive of NUPRC, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan and Authority Chief Executive of NMDPRA, Rabiu Umar.

These agreements came within the milestone 25th NOG Energy Week themed “Advancing Energy Ambitions for Competitive & Resilient Economies,” which spotlighted the critical role of strategic partnerships in delivering energy and industrial value.

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Oil and Gas

Dangote Plans $46 billion Mega Refineries to connect West and East Africa

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From what began as Dangote’s landmark refinery project in Nigeria, it is now evolving into a continent-wide refining network, with the company confirming plans for a 700,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery in Kenya as part of a $46 billion investment programme spanning its refining, cement and fertiliser businesses between 2026 and 2028.

Dangote Industries, upon delivery, expects to operate a combined refining capacity of 2.1 million bpd which includes the 1.4 million bpd in Nigeria and 700,000 bpd in Kenya, creating one of Africa’s largest privately owned refining networks.

Stretching from the Atlantic coast in West Africa to the Indian Ocean in East Africa, the twin hubs are expected to strengthen intra-African fuel trade while reducing the continent’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products.

The expanded plans were disclosed by Dangote Industries’ Group Vice President for Oil and Gas, Devakumar Edwin, during a visit by a delegation from the Republic of the Congo’s national oil company, Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC), to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos.

During the visit, the company outlined its long-term African expansion strategy while discussing regional energy cooperation.

The latest announcement also marks a significant increase from Dangote’s earlier proposal for a 650,000-bpd refinery in Kenya, signalling growing confidence in East Africa’s long-term fuel demand and the country’s strategic importance to the group’s continental ambitions.
Why Kenya emerged as Dangote’s preferred choice

Kenya had emerged as Dangote’s preferred destination after the company evaluated several locations across East Africa.

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The Port of Mombasa, East Africa’s busiest seaport, already serves as a key gateway for petroleum products destined for Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and parts of Tanzania, making it an ideal hub for regional fuel distribution.

The expanded plans were disclosed by Dangote Industries’ Group Vice President for Oil and Gas, Devakumar Edwin, during a visit by a delegation from the Republic of the Congo’s national oil company – SNPC
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Kenya also has an extensive pipeline network operated by the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC), allowing refined products to move efficiently across the country and into neighbouring landlocked states.

Its position within the East African Community (EAC)—a market of more than 300 million people—further strengthens its appeal, while the project would revive Kenya’s ambitions of becoming a regional refining hub after the closure of its only refinery over a decade ago.

The significance of the Kenyan refinery extends well beyond East Africa.

Together with Dangote Industries’ planned 1.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity in Nigeria, the proposed 700,000-bpd refinery in Kenya would create a 2.1 million-bpd refining network stretching from West to East Africa.
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The twin hubs would position the conglomerate to supply refined petroleum products across much of sub-Saharan Africa while reducing the continent’s dependence on fuel imports from the Middle East, Europe and Asia

Today, much of East Africa relies on refined petroleum imports from the Middle East, India and Europe. A refinery in Kenya would allow Dangote to supply fuel much closer to end markets, reducing shipping distances, improving supply security and supporting the continent’s push to process more of its own crude.

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The strategy also complements the objectives of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by strengthening intra-African industrial capacity and reducing dependence on overseas refiners.

Dangote has repeatedly framed the company’s expansion as a continental rather than national project.
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“We are for Africa, not just Nigeria. Tell us what you need, and we will see how we can work together,” the Dangote Industries President and Chief Executive said.

If completed, the twin-refinery strategy would place Dangote at the centre of Africa’s energy transition, not away from fossil fuels, but away from dependence on imported refined products.

By linking West and East Africa through two mega-refineries, the group is positioning itself to become one of the continent’s most influential suppliers of transportation fuels while advancing a broader vision of African industrial self-sufficiency.

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Business and Economy

Oil Prices Nosedive as U.S. and Iran Reach Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

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By Son Tertsea, Abuja

Oil prices had taken a nosedive early Monday following the U.S. and Iran announced deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz more than 100 days after its closure.

Today, Brent crude had dropped 3.95% to trade at $83.88 per barrel, while WTI had fallen 4.62% to $80.96 per barrel. Oil prices, which peaked in mid-May, have been slowly but surely trending downward in recent weeks on rumors of a deal, even after multiple escalatory strikes.

With President Trump’s
Sunday night declaration that a deal with Iran was complete, writing on social media that “oil will flow” through the Strait of Hormuz once the deal is signed on Friday.

In his confirmation, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that the text of a memorandum of understanding had been finalized and that a formal signing ceremony would take place in Switzerland on Friday.

Pakistan and Qatar, the two lead mediators in the deal, also confirmed the agreement.

While details of the deal are yet sketchy, semi-official Iranian state news outlet Mehr News Agency published details from a source “close to Iran’s negotiating team”. Those details include an end to the war in Lebanon, the suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds, and an affirmation that Iran will not produce nuclear weapons.

The release of funds and the broader lifting of sanctions on Iran are set to take place during the ceasefire period, although reporting by Mehr News Agency suggested that $12 billion would be made available to Iran before negotiations begin.

See also  US and Iran Fire Trade: After Trump Dubbed Tehran’s vessel attack “a foolish violation of … ceasefire agreement.”

Perhaps more importantly for oil markets, Iran will be able to resume crude exports during the 60-day ceasefire period while broader nuclear negotiations continue. This may include possible hand over of all uranium stockpiled for nuclear weapons, as demanded by the USA president.

The diplomatic breakthrough was nearly foiled at the eleventh hour when Israel conducted an air strike on southern Beirut, with Trump saying the attack “should not have happened”. The President took to social media immediately after the attack to say “all sides should stand down” and added that there should be no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon.

While the agreement represents the most serious diplomatic breakthrough since the war began, markets will remain on edge until the Strait is cleared of mines, the deal is signed, and normal shipping flows resume.

The mood is no doubt warm that after more than three months of war, there is greaer prospect for normalcy to return. And traders are finally beginning to price in the possibility of peace and a return to normal. Whether that peace holds, and just how long a return to normal will take, remains to be seen

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