Middle East expert Yoni Ben Menachem warns that behind Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statements lies a structured plan to build a new Sunni axis that could replace Iran’s regional role.

Ben Menachem, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, cautions that Turkey is emerging, in his view, as an increasing strategic threat to Israel. He argues that the policies led by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan go far beyond public rhetoric. According to him, “Turkey is the new Iran.”

He claims that Ankara is quietly working to establish a new Sunni bloc in the Middle East, based on the assumption that the Iranian regime will weaken or even collapse. Such a development, he says, would create a regional vacuum following the decline of the Shi’ite axis. Turkey, he adds, aims to fill this vacuum alongside Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan, in a move intended to reshape the regional balance of power.

Ben Menachem’s assessment corresponds to steps taken by Ankara in recent years to position itself as a regional leader, partly by taking an active role in defending the Palestinian cause and opposing Israeli interests in the region.

On Sunday, Erdogan accused Israel of carrying out atrocities against Palestine and Lebanon and threatened potential military action against the Jewish state, similar to its past interventions in Karabakh and Libya.

Ankara has so far been cautious about approaching southern Syria, due to concerns over a direct confrontation with Israel
These latest comments, along with the already strained relations between Ankara and Jerusalem, could lead the two regional powers to sever ties completely, as MK Amichai Eliyahu suggested in his response to Erdogan on Sunday.

Is Turkey positioning to replace Iran in the region?

Alongside the diplomatic front, Turkey is also strengthening its military presence in Syria, in coordination with Ahmed al-Sharaa. However, Ben Menachem notes that Ankara has so far been cautious about approaching southern Syria, due to concerns over a direct confrontation with Israel.

Ben Menachem believes these steps reflect far broader regional ambitions that extend beyond Syria or Iran alone. According to him, Turkey seeks to expand its influence across the Middle East, including around the issue of Jerusalem and in the international arena, developments that Israel must take into account already now.

Regarding Turkey’s leadership, Ben Menachem described Erdogan as the most dangerous figure from Israel’s perspective and also identified Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan as another key power player in Ankara. He noted reports of tensions between the two, linked to Fidan’s alleged ambitions to eventually succeed Erdogan, though he added it remains unclear whether such a scenario will materialize.

Culled: The Jerusalem Post

A close examination of the protracted militant herdsmen occupation of Benue State reveals what appears to be a troubling intersection of strategic geographical determinism and leadership vulnerability in the affected areas.

What exactly is the strategic geography of these invasions when one considers the local government areas (LGAs) that have borne the brunt of repeated assaults?

A significant number including Guma, Makurdi, Gwer West, Logo, Ukum, Gwer East, Agatu, Apa and Kwande are frontier LGAs that share direct boundaries with Nasarawa and Taraba States. Kwande, in particular, shares an international border with Cameroon.

Several others including Agatu, Gwer West, Guma, Makurdi and Buruku lie along the fertile floodplains of the River Benue and its tributaries. These arable lands are a major source of attraction to desert-stricken and volatile herdsmen moving southwards from the Sahel and the far North.

Yet geographical determinism alone cannot explain the scale and persistence of occupation. Without the vulnerability of political leadership in the affected LGAs, geography would not have provided sufficient incentive for repeated invasion.

What Gwer East, Guma, Gwer West, Logo and Agatu share is not only fertile land or border exposure, but a deficit of well-articulated, visionary and dynamic political leadership at both local and national levels.

The leadership gap is a common denominator: these LGAs lack political figures with the weight and will to defend their security and strategic interests in Makurdi and Abuja.

Let us reverse the hypothesis: what has spared LGAs like Gboko, Tarkaa, Vandeikya, Otukpo and Konshisha from repeated, gruesome herdsmen invasions and occupation of their lands? Is it the effect of strategic leadership and geography, or merely sheer luck?

I stretch this imagination further. Could it be a coincidence or part of a broader, unspoken agenda that political leaders from these relatively spared LGAs have rarely, if ever, come out forcefully at state or national level to denounce and condemn the herdsmen occupation of Benue State?

It may be coincidence, but the political leaders of the non-occupied LGAs have largely maintained what looks like a conspiracy of silence, a silence that raises doubt and suspicion.

Where exactly do geographical determinism and leadership recruitment converge on the graph of herdsmen occupation in Benue?

I think aloud, though I may be wrong: somewhere, somehow, the future of Benue State appears mortgaged by leaders whose continuous silence assures militant herdsmen that occupation can proceed even in the face of security agencies that share intelligence and logistics across Nigeria.

The herdsmen invasion of Agena in Mbalom, Gwer East, has become a recurring decimal in the last two decades. The same pattern holds for Ugondo communities in Logo, and for the vulnerable and repeatedly assaulted Agatu and Apa. Kwande suffers a cycle of invasion and occupation. By contrast, Gboko, Tarkaa, Vandeikya, Otukpo and Konshisha have never experienced this level of attack and territorial occupation.

Could there be an unspoken arrangement that concedes some strategic geographical space within Benue for occupation by militant herdsmen as a form of political horse-trading in exchange for appointments and leadership positions at state and federal levels?

Until the entire Benue political elite and ruling class at both state and national levels reach a total consensus in condemning land grabbing and occupation by herdsmen, some communities in Benue will continue to bleed, and their lands will remain under occupation by militant herdsmen, both real and masquerading.

By Prof. Wilfred Terlumun Uji, Federal University, Lafia, Nasarawa State

Dr Emmanuel Ulayi

When Barrister Oluwaseun Faleye assumed duties as the Managing Director/Chief Executive of the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF) on July 15, 2024, it was clear that a new dawn had arrived for the Fund. He left no one in doubt that a reformer had finally berthed at the agency and that he possessed the requisite wherewithal to transform the NSITF and usher in a breath of fresh air into the welfare of the Nigerian worker.

With less than two years into his tenure, Barrister Faleye has succeeded in instilling Nigerians’ confidence in the Fund by building strong institutional trust through deliberate and concerted efforts. One such initiative is the repackaging and aggressive promotion of the Employees’ Compensation Scheme (ECS) in the public sector, along with inter-agency engagement, to give the scheme the visibility it needs. The Managing Director has been leading from the front in preaching the gospel of the Employees’ Compensation Scheme, taking it to the doorsteps of the governors.

No doubt, the idea of engaging governors directly as a means of marketing the ECS has started yielding positive results. So far, the MD has been able to take his campaign of selling the benefits of the ECS to at least three governors from three geopolitical zones, and the responses have been amazing.

In the North East, the Managing Director has engaged the Governor of Taraba State, Agbu Kefas, with whom both agreed to partner on the ECS. While meeting the governor at the Government House in Jalingo, the Managing Director called for deeper institutional collaboration between the Fund and the Taraba State Government to strengthen the implementation of the Employees’ Compensation Scheme (ECS).

He told the governor that the engagement was far from ceremonial, describing it as part of a deliberate strategy to build structured partnerships with “progressive state governments committed to workers’ welfare and institutional sustainability.” Faleye emphasized that the Employees’ Compensation Scheme is not merely a statutory obligation but a critical social protection instrument that guarantees dignity for workers and stability for employers.

“When a worker is injured, disabled, or loses his life in the course of duty, the response of government defines public trust and reinforces confidence in leadership,” Falaye said, noting that expanding ECS coverage aligns directly with the governor’s welfare-driven agenda as he commended Governor Kefas on his commitment to workers’ welfare.

The NSITF boss stressed the need to move beyond dialogue to measurable outcomes and proposed practical steps that would expand ECS compliance across state MDAs, intensify sensitization of major employers and contractors operating in Taraba, and strengthen workplace safety and compensation awareness across the state.

To ensure structure and accountability, Faleye suggested a focal ministry or designated official to coordinate engagement with the NSITF. “If it pleases Your Excellency, we can immediately set up a joint technical interface between your designated team and ours to develop a short implementation roadmap within the next few weeks,” he said, adding that the Fund has already established an internal Strategic Inter-Agency Coordination (SIAC) framework to track timelines and deliverables arising from such engagements.

Faleye highlighted the mutual benefits of strengthened ECS coverage, noting that it would protect workers, reduce employers’ litigation exposure, promote industrial harmony, and reinforce the administration’s commitment to structured social protection.

In a move aimed at institutionalizing compliance, Faleye recommended the integration of the ECS Compliance Certificate into the state’s public procurement and contracting processes. He explained that requiring evidence of NSITF compliance as part of documentation for contract bidding, pre-qualification for state projects, contractor registration and renewal, and public-private partnership engagements would not create new obligations but rather reinforce existing statutory requirements.

The approach, he added, would ensure that companies benefiting from public funds are also compliant in protecting their workers. Faleye concluded by seeking clarity on the state’s preferred coordination structure, asking the governor to advise on which ministry or official the Fund should immediately work with to operationalize the collaboration.

He subsequently conferred on the Governor, the Ambassador for the Advocacy of ECS in Taraba State in particular, and the Northeast in general.

Consequently, Governor Kefas assured that the state would key into the ECS for the betterment of the workers. Governor Kefas immediately set up a high-powered committee to interface with NSITF to ensure Taraba state is ECS-compliant. “Taraba state government is ready to partner with NSITF to ensure you fulfill your mandate by ensuring all workers are enrolled in the scheme. We would be working through our office of the Head of Service, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry for Local Government,” he stated.

The governor, while welcoming the NSITF delegation, expressed his appreciation for the “Kind words on all the positive things you have noticed we are doing to improve the lives of our people.”

He revealed that “Only recently, we paid N5 billion to pensioners in the state” and expressed optimism that “by the end of the year, the state won’t be owing any pensioners their entitlement. We would fulfill all obligations as regards the scheme in furtherance of our commitment to workers’ welfare,” Governor Kefas promised.

On the confirmation of Ambassador for Advocacy of ECS in the state and the whole of the Northeast region, the governor said, “I want to assure you I am interested in this, your mandate. I am interested in accepting any assignment that would enhance this mandate in the interest of the country and workers in general.”

In the South South, Barrister Faleye took his campaign to the Governor of Rivers state, Chief Siminilayi Fubara, who applauded the scheme, declaring that the Fund was projecting the administration of President Bola Tinubu positively, and was indeed a gift to the Nigerian worker.

Faleye had explained to the governor that his mission in Rivers State was to present cheques to beneficiaries under the ECS and solicit the governor’s support for the Scheme. “We are here in Rivers State to present cheques to some private sector employees who are beneficiaries of the Scheme. We are also here to solicit your support in ensuring that the River State Government subscribes to the Employees’ Compensation Scheme in the bid to improve the State workers’ welfare.

“River State keying into the scheme will be a trailblazer. Rivers can be the leading light of the ECS in the South-South Region,” he solicited.

Explaining the Scheme to Governor Fubara, Faleye said, “We are mandated by law to implement the ECS in the case of death, injury, or diseases that may occur in the course of work. It is instructive to note that our compensation goes on for some while to provide a social safety net for employees.

“In the same vein, it offers a lot of economic benefits to the State and its workforce as the Scheme builds resilience in the workforce ecosystem, thereby contributing to economic productivity”.

The NSITF MD appealed to Governor Fubara to make the NSITF compliance certificate a prerequisite for doing business with the State Government, a suggestion which the Governor readily accepted, noting that Rivers State will start by ensuring that the contractor undertaking its Government Secretariat renovations complies with the ECS.

Governor Fubara, who was elated at the excellent work being carried out by the MD and his team, commended the Fund for bringing the Employees Compensation Scheme to the notice of the Rivers State Government. He said, “The good work of NSITF, through the Employees’ Compensation Scheme, is projecting the Federal Government in a very positive light. In fact, it is a gift to Nigerian workers and everyone who has keyed into the Scheme.”

Governor Fubara also assured that Rivers State would embrace the Scheme. He said, “We are trying in our little ways to improve the fortune of our workers. We will take it as a matter of priority to ensure we subscribe to the Employees’ Compensation Scheme managed by the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund”.

The Governor further opined that the Scheme could come in handy in the fight against corruption. “One way of fighting corruption is for the State to key into the Employees’ Compensation Scheme.”

He explained that corruption “Is fuelled by the fear of what happens to the individual when they are no longer able to work”, emphasizing the importance of an institution such as NSITF that could allay workers’ fear of the future and also give hope to the people. He expressed joy that the “Scheme is working and catering for the needs of injured and disabled workers as well as families of deceased ones,” and vowed that “…nothing will stop us from working towards subscribing to the Scheme.”

Just recently, the MD visited the South West, and the campaign train stopped over at the Alausa, the seat of power in Lagos, where both the NSITF and the Lagos State Government heartily agreed to align on the Employees’ Compensation Scheme. Barrister Faleye had expressed the willingness of the NSITF to support the Lagos State Government in putting in place the appropriate institutional framework for the implementation of the Employees’ Compensation Scheme (ECS) within the state.

He said the purpose of the visit was to establish a clear and structured pathway for the implementation of the Employees’ Compensation Scheme in Lagos State. The MD stated, “We would like to assure you of our full readiness to support Lagos State through: Technical onboarding and advisory support, sensitisation across MDAs, LGAs, and public institutions, claims processing and compensation administration, and occupational Safety and Health interventions.”

He stressed that to ensure momentum, “We respectfully seek alignment on the following: Identification of the lead coordinating Ministry or Office; Nomination of a focal person or technical desk; and agreement to convene a joint technical session within the next two weeks”.

Speaking about the strategic nature of Lagos, Faleye said, “We recognize the scale and sophistication of Lagos State: A large and diverse workforce, multiple MDAs and LGAs, and strong administrative and payroll systems.

“We appreciate the opportunity to engage with you on a matter that directly aligns with Lagos State’s development priorities under the THEMES+ Agenda, particularly in the areas of governance, economic sustainability, and health and environment,” he added.

The MD further explained that “At this stage, our objective is practical and implementation-focused: To establish a coordination structure between Lagos State and NSITF; and to agree on immediate next steps for a seamless onboarding process”.

On the importance of the scheme, Faleye explained that “The Employees’ Compensation Scheme provides: Structured protection for employees in cases of workplace injury, disease, disability, or death; a framework for managing employer liabilities; and a mechanism for strengthening occupational safety for workers.

“Importantly, ECS serves as a direct enabler of key pillars of the THEMES+ Agenda. Under economic sustainability, it protects the workforce that drives productivity and economic output.

“We look forward to working closely with your team to translate this into an effective implementation model”, the MD reiterated.

In his response, the Lagos State Head of Service, Mr. Bode Agoro, who stood in for the State Government, expressed appreciation for the gesture and immediately announced the full implementation of the Employees compensation Scheme in the state with the establishment of a unit in the state to manage the scheme.

Already, the advocacy by the Managing Director has gained traction, and its effectiveness is spreading like wildfire as other states are now yearning for a visit from the Fund to key into the ECS. Daniel has indeed come to judgement at the NSITF. With Barrister Oluwaseun Faleye, the atmosphere is conducive, and there is a Renewed Hope in place.

Ulayi, is a principal manager in the Corporate Affairs department of NSITF