Business and Economy
IMF Picks Holes in Nigeria’s budgeting System as Execution Crises Deepen
A new International Monetary Fund (IMF) report released yesterday warned that weak budget credibility is undermining macroeconomic stability across sub-Saharan Africa, eroding public trust and weakening long-term development outcomes.
The IMF warning comes on the heels of rising concerns over Nigeria’s persistent cycle of opaque budget administration, spurious benchmark, overlapping execution and revenue shortfalls, challenges that seek to undermine budgeting as a fiscal control tool.
At the federal level, the culture of budgeting as it was known is dying, giving way to unappropriated spending, multiple budget execution, undefined budgeting cycle, among others.
For one, the 2026 appropriation was only signed into law on April 17, over three months into a new fiscal year and over two into its supposed implementation.
A statement by the President’s spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, shortly after the budget was signed, said the spending guide had taken effect on April 1, raising questions on whether its implementation had commenced before the President’s signature – a necessary aspect of the lawmaking process.
The budget was passed by the two chambers of the National Assembly after the members hurriedly approved the add-on sent by President Bola Tinubu.
At the signing of the appropriation, the National Assembly extended the implementation of the capital component of the 2025 appropriation to June 30, 2026 – a strange fiscal practice invoked recently to manage the public uproar over weak capital budget performance, but which has grown into a budget governance culture.
The decision validated the press’ worries over government’s poor commitment to ending overlapping budget implementation. At the twilight of last year, Tinubu wrote to the parliament requesting the “re-enactment” of a harmonised 2024/2025 appropriation as part of the groundwork to end the history of overlapping budget implementation, which started in 2022 under the late President Muhammadu Buhari.
Since then, budget rollover has become a routine fiscal pathway, though capital expenditure performances have been kneecapped by poor revenue mobilisation to less than 70 per cent. When Tinubu promised the lawmakers an end to multiple budgeting, many analysts, who baulked at his commitment, have been justified by the handling of the 2025 public spending document.
And close to a month after the 2026 budget was signed into law, there is no official confirmation beyond Onanuga’s statement on whether its execution, at least the recurrent component, has commenced.
The IMF report, titled ‘Budget Credibility in Sub-Saharan Africa’, paints a troubling picture of how governments across the region routinely depart from approved fiscal plans, with deficits exceeding projections, current expenditures overshooting limits and capital projects repeatedly abandoned or implementation delayed midway.
The 2024 budget performance was the last of such reports. Then, the government projected a fiscal deficit of N9.17 trillion, which was overrun by N4.34 trillion or 47 per cent. Recent years mirror similar variance in fiscal deficit projection and actual deficit, a crisis fuelled by revenue underperformance or recurrent projection overrun or both.
Many African countries lack commercially viable frameworks that drive public-private partnership (PPP) elsewhere, thus making equity funding a key driver of public infrastructure delivery. With Nigeria’s yearly infrastructure estimated at $300 million by Moody’s in the face of a tattered PPP model, there are not many options for equity infrastructure spending.
The IMF paper studied 39 African countries between 2021 and 2024, with Nigeria featuring prominently in the institutional assessment and exemplifying many of the structural weaknesses highlighted in the report: optimistic revenue assumptions, weak expenditure discipline, fragmented fiscal management systems, poor transparency and recurrent reliance on supplementary or revised budgets that alter the original fiscal framework within months of legislative approval.
The treatment of the 2026 budget speaks expressly about the low attention African countries accord to the transparency canon. Almost a month after the budget was signed, the revised version has yet to be made public, which raises concerns about the government’s commitment to transparency.
The current administration has been accused of failing in fiscal transparency tests. Borrowed funds are spent without clearly articulated justifications. Budget implementation reports (BIRs), which were previously updated quarterly, are now delayed for as much as a year. Close to mid-year, the 2025 full-year BIR is yet to be made public; only the half-year is accessible.
Recently, the Guardian reported that the FG’s yearly audited financial statement was last transmitted to the National Assembly in 2023, a breach of a provision of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), a fiscal discipline document that has been abused on all fronts.
For the IMF report, Nigeria, Africa’s once largest economy, is grappling with elevated debt servicing costs, chronic revenue underperformance, ballooning recurrent expenditures, heavy dependence on borrowing, widening infrastructure deficit, as well as rising social spending demand amid a fragile macroeconomic environment.
The exit of Edun
The IMF warned that when governments consistently fail to deliver budgets as approved, fiscal policy loses credibility, investor confidence weakens, and economic uncertainty intensifies.
“Budgets are more than technical documents. They reflect the core policy commitments of a government: setting priorities, allocating scarce resources and signalling the fiscal stance. When these commitments are repeatedly missed, fiscal discipline weakens and macroeconomic uncertainty rises,” the report said.
Fiscal estimates, reality and outlook
The Federal Government’s revised 2026 budget, estimated at N68.32 trillion, was built on crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd), an oil benchmark price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400/$1, an overshoot of the current dollar-naira exchange value.
Last month, the country’s average production was 1.49mbpd, about 20 per cent short of the target and the highest since the beginning of the year. Shortfalls over the years have been fuelled by pipeline vandalism, oil theft and operational disruptions, divestment by international oil companies (IOC) and poor fresh investment – challenges the government is yet to find solutions to.
Following an upward revision of the budget, Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal deficit is projected at N29.2 trillion, while debt servicing alone is expected to consume over 20 per cent of the entire expenditure.
The IMF paper warned that poor budgeting could weaken not only fiscal planning but also governance and accountability structures.
“Credible budgets enable stronger accountability and reinforce the social contract by aligning the government’s stated objectives with its actions,” the report stated.
Nigeria’s recurring budget credibility problems have become more visible over the past decade as fiscal pressures intensified. Large fiscal deficits financed by borrowing, accompanied by weak revenue mobilisation, volatile oil earnings and rising debt service obligations.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF noted, fiscal deficits consistently exceed approved budget levels because governments tend to overestimate revenues while underestimating spending pressures, a pattern that closely reflects Nigeria’s experience.
Successive Nigerian budgets have repeatedly projected aggressive revenue growth based on overtly optimistic assumptions around crude oil production, exchange rates, tax proceeds and economic growth. Yet actuals often fall below projections.
The IMF found that current expenditures, including wages, transfers and operational spending, consistently exceeded budget ceilings across the region and were the single biggest contributor to fiscal overruns.
The report identified primary current expenditure overruns, rather than interest payments alone, as the major source of budget deviations.
The IMF warned that in many African countries, governments resort to cutting or postponing capital projects whenever revenues disappoint or financing conditions tighten.
The consequences, the report noted, include unfinished roads, delayed infrastructure projects, weak healthcare delivery and underfunded education systems. It warned that this approach ultimately weakens long-term growth and development prospects.
The IMF paper also highlighted how weak expenditure controls and pro-cyclical fiscal behaviour worsen budget credibility problems.
It warned that fragmented cash management systems and weak oversight structures significantly undermine budget credibility across the region.
The report further stressed that weak digitalisation, poor data exchange systems and limited access to timely fiscal information undermine accountability across many African countries.
By Michael Lim
Kwara State Government has announced plans to buy shares in the Dangote Refinery Initial Public Offering (IPO) for female teachers in the state.
The plan is part of a new initiative to promote investment and financial inclusion among educators.
Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq disclosed this on Monday in Ilorin while speaking at an event organised to mark the 2026 World Teachers’ Day.
The Governor also presented about N120 million in awards to outstanding teachers, head teachers, principals and schools.
The governor said the state would purchase 10,000 shares for 10 female teachers in each of the outstanding public schools.
He added that the scheme would also be extended to outstanding retired female teachers.
He said the initiative was being developed in partnership with the Dangote Foundation to encourage women to move beyond earning income to building assets through investment and share ownership.
“Dangote has created the Dangote Foundation, providing subscription grounds for women only. For every ten shares we purchase they will give a grant of another ten shares, making twenty shares,” AbdulRazaq said.
He added, “Our hardworking women teachers in TESCOM and SUBEB will get ten shares each. We will also extend it to the retired female teachers so that peace and prosperity will go round them.”
AbdulRazaq directed the Head of Service, Dr Olufunke Mercy Shittu, to work out modalities for capturing qualified retired female teachers under the initiative.
The governor said the investment programme was part of wider efforts to improve the welfare and economic opportunities available to teachers in the state.
He said his administration would continue to prioritise teachers because of their central role in determining the quality of education and, ultimately, the future of the state.
“We will continue to do our part, including improving your welfare and working conditions on a sustainable basis. We are confident that you and other stakeholders will always do your part,” he said.
The governor also presented financial awards totalling about N120 million to outstanding education stakeholders across different categories.
While 29 best principals and head teachers received N29 million, 119 outstanding teachers received N59.5 million.
Eleven serving and retired university dons were presented with N22 million under the Pioneer Professorship Recognition Awards, while three schools received N9 million for the Best Kept School Award.
AbdulRazaq said the recognition was designed to reward sacrifice and motivate educators to sustain their contributions to the state’s education system.
He said the administration’s education reforms had focused on improving both the quality of teaching and learning, citing merit-based recruitment, continuous professional development, improved school infrastructure and the use of technology and data through KwaraLEARN.
The governor also highlighted the regular promotion of teachers and implementation of the 27.5 per cent Teachers’ Specific Allowance as measures aimed at improving their welfare.
According to him, the interventions were yielding results, particularly in the performance of Kwara pupils at national and international competitions.
The Chairman of the State Universal Basic Education Board (SUBEB), Prof Sheu Raheem Adaramaja, announced that the 2026 promotion exercise for eligible teachers had been approved by the state government.
Adaramaja said the promotion examination would hold on October 10, adding that Kwara would be the first state in the federation to conduct its 2026 promotion exercise for eligible teachers.
Commissioner for Education and Human Capital Development, Dr Lawal Olohungbebe, said the award programme demonstrated that hard work deserved recognition.
He urged the awardees to sustain their performance and encouraged teachers across the state to continue developing themselves professionally.
The former Kwara State Chairman of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and keynote speaker, Comrade Umar Farooq, said supporting teachers should be regarded as an investment in children, communities and society.
The state Chairman of the Nigeria Union of Teachers (NUT), Comrade Yusuf Wahab Agboola, thanked the government for its interventions in school infrastructure and teachers’ welfare, while urging it to adopt the national harmonised retirement age for teachers.
*Plans intervention or games for young entrepreneurs
By Aliyu Musa
THE University of Maiduguri business management class of 1997 at its first reunion in Abuja emphasized the need to support young entrepreneurs and provide them the necessary support such that they can contribute to the micro economic growth and eliminate devices that falls below acceptable moral and legal standards.
The class of 97 also agreed to constitute an investment committee that will assist the forum pursue its goals ahead of its proposed 30th anniversary slatted for 2027.
Former deputy speaker of the House of Representatives,Honourable Babangida Nguroje who also spoke at the reunion called on his course mates to deploy their professional strength in ways that will strengthen the nation’s economy , give back to their university and groom upcoming entrepreneurs through trainings and offer opportunities for them to grow .
Honourable Nguroje emphasized the need to boost the micro economy of Nigeria through investments that will further create jobs for the teeming youths and grow the country’s domestic growth .
According to him ,”It is my honour to be in your midst this evening and a rare opportunity for all of us to be united again after several years.
“It is particularly important that this union is coming at a time that this country needs our expertise as students of figures ,data and research .
“This is out first reunion and I am glad that we have developed in our individual capacities and areas of interests .
“Much as we are here basically to catch up again , it is important that discourse matters that will send out footprints in our university by identifying areas we can assist our university , particularly our department .
“We must also look at ways of making this gathering annually and how best we can lift those in need and create opportunities for all of us .”
One of the organizers of the reunion Mrs Julianna Aiwerioghene said the class of 97 will take seriously the issues of empowerment and as managers ,it will be interested in grooming younger business owners to again their full potentials .
“We will be interested in harnessing their capabilities and help them build themselves through trainings and other forms of support .
“We want to see a productive generation for the younger ones and we will be subsequently looking at helping each other and continually look at how we will remain united and grow together. Progress is what we take seriously and we will also not forget out university in the process .”
–Job losses loom
A wide disparity in the ability of companies listed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited, NGX, to cover their debt obligations with cash has emerged, with some companies holding several times more cash than debt, while others have cash covering only a fraction of their outstanding borrowings.
Analysts noted that the cash/debt position of some of the listed companies could affect investment, employment, production and capital-market development.
The available data obtained by Vanguard, covering 40 companies in the second quarter of 2026, showed a combined total debt of N3.9 trillion, out of which 18 firms have cash/debt ratios of at least 1.0 times, indicating that their cash holdings are equal to or greater than their total debt, while 22 companies have ratios below 1.0 times, meaning their total debt exceeds cash on hand.
The cash/debt ratio measures a company’s ability to meet its debt obligations using cash available to it. A ratio above 1.0 times generally indicates that a company has sufficient cash to cover its total debt, although the ratio does not, on its own, measure overall financial strength or debt-servicing capacity.
Cash/debt analysis
On the table of the cash/debt analysis, HBM Nigeria led, with a cash/debt ratio of 319.07 times, based on cash of N393.68 billion and total debt of N1.23 billion.
It was followed by UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust, with 283.73 times, from cash of N7.15 billion against debt of only N25.2 million, while eTranzact International recorded 214.89 times, with N23.69 billion cash and N110.24 million debt.
CWG also recorded a high ratio of 211.1 times, with cash of N7.4 billion compared with total debt of N35.06 million.
Other companies with substantial cash coverage included Unilever Nigeria, with a ratio of 44.8 times; Berger Paints, 18.4 times; Industrial & Medical Gases, 13.56 times; and NASCON Allied Industries, 12.72 times.
Companies with stronger cash cover
The available data, as gathered by Vanguard, also showed that several major companies had cash exceeding their debt.
Vitafoam Nigeria recorded 5.88 times, while UPDC posted 5.47 times. International Breweries had 3.34 times, Sterling Financial Holdings 3.08 times and May & Baker Nigeria 2.83 times.
Livestock Feeds recorded 1.94 times, Julius Berger Nigeria 1.85 times, Chams Holdings 1.65 times and Dangote Cement 1.31 times. Skyway Aviation recorded 1.19 times.
The figures suggest that these companies have, based purely on cash on hand relative to total debt, a degree of liquidity protection against debt obligations.
However, analysts caution that a high cash/debt ratio should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that a company is more profitable or efficiently managed.
Debt exceeds cash in 22 companies
On the other hand, Aradel Holdings recorded a cash/debt ratio of 0.96 times, with cash of N1.77 trillion against total debt of N1.84 trillion.
Ellah Lakes recorded 0.81 time, John Holt 0.77 times, Academy Press 0.72 times and Eterna 0.69 times. ABC Transport had 0.58 times, while Cadbury Nigeria and Fidson each recorded 0.53 times.
The ratio fell further among BUA Cement, at 0.46 times; BUA Foods, 0.44 time; Beta Glass, 0.34 time; Conoil, 0.20 times; Guinness Nigeria, 0.16 times; and Champion Breweries, 0.16 times.
DAAR Communications recorded 0.14 time, while Cutix and Japaul Gold & Ventures each recorded 0.11 times.
Geregu Power had 0.09 times, FTN Cocoa Processors 0.08 times, C & I Leasing 0.07 time, Chellarams 0.05 times and Caverton Offshore Support Group the lowest at 0.03 times.
This means, for example, that Caverton’s N2.46 billion cash position represents only a small fraction of its N87.15 billion total debt, while Chellarams had N235.16 million cash against N5.12 billion debt.
Implications for companies
Market analysts said the cash/debt ratio provides investors with an important indication of the liquidity pressure facing companies, particularly in an environment where the cost of borrowing remains significant.
They noted that companies with ratios substantially above 1.0 time have greater cash buffers with which to meet debt obligations, fund working capital and withstand temporary disruptions in revenue.
However, they said excessive cash holdings could also raise questions about whether funds are being deployed productively.
According to the analysts, a very high cash/debt ratio may be positive from a liquidity perspective, but investors should examine why the company is holding so much cash instead of investing it in productive assets, expanding operations, reducing debt or returning capital to shareholders.
For companies with ratios below 1.0 time, the concern is different. A low ratio does not necessarily mean that a company is in financial distress because businesses generate operating cash flows and may have access to undrawn credit facilities and other sources of liquidity.
Nevertheless, analysts said a persistently low ratio could expose companies to refinancing and interest-rate risks, particularly where debt repayments fall due before sufficient operating cash is generated.
Implications for shareholders
For shareholders, the ratio has implications for both risk and returns.
Companies with relatively strong cash positions may have greater flexibility to service debt, maintain operations during difficult periods and finance expansion without immediately resorting to additional borrowing or equity dilution.
On the other hand, companies with low cash/debt ratios may face higher financial risk if earnings or operating cash flows weaken.
Analysts, however, stressed that shareholders should not make investment decisions based solely on the ratio.
They said investors should consider profitability, operating cash flow, interest expenses, debt maturity profile, working-capital requirements, asset quality and management’s capital-allocation strategy alongside the cash/debt position.
Implications for Nigerian economy
At the broader economic level, analysts said the cash/debt position of listed companies could affect investment, employment, production and capital-market development.
Companies carrying heavy debt burdens may devote a larger proportion of their earnings to interest and principal repayments rather than expansion, technology, employment and dividend payments.
Where debt is used productively, however, leverage can support expansion and increase productive capacity.
The implication, analysts said, is that the quality and use of debt matter as much as the amount of debt itself.
A company with a low cash/debt ratio but strong and predictable operating cash flow may be able to manage its obligations effectively, while a company with a high cash/debt ratio but weak operations could still face business challenges.
For the Nigerian economy, the ability of listed companies to maintain adequate liquidity is therefore important because financially stable businesses are better positioned to sustain production, employment, tax payments and investment.
Cash/debt ratio not a standalone measure
Analysts therefore advised investors to treat the cash/debt ratio as one component of a wider financial-health assessment.
The data shows a clear divide: while some NGX-listed companies have cash positions several times larger than their debt, others have debt that is many multiples of their available cash.
The difference highlights the varying approaches of companies to borrowing, liquidity management and capital allocation and provides investors with an additional indicator for assessing financial risk.
Analysts’ comments
Ambrose Omordion, Chief Operating Officer, InvestData Consulting Limited, said investors should not assess debt in isolation but should examine earnings, cash flow, interest-cover ratios and the maturity profile of borrowings.
He said a high level of debt could magnify shareholder returns when borrowed funds are invested in profitable projects, but could also magnify losses when earnings and cash flows weaken.
The same principle applies to the cash-to-debt ratio.
A company with a low ratio but strong and predictable operating cash flow may remain financially stable, while a company with a high ratio but weak operations may face longer-term challenges if its cash balance is not being replenished.
Impact on companies
For the companies themselves, high cash cover provides an important cushion in an environment of elevated interest rates.
Companies that need to refinance maturing loans may face higher finance costs when new loans are contracted. Those with significant cash can repay some debt, negotiate from a stronger position with lenders or fund part of their capital expenditure internally.
This could reduce finance costs and improve profitability.
Commenting on the ratios, economic and communications expert, Clifford Egbomeade, said: “The interpretation of cash and debt should go beyond the ratio itself,” stressing that investors should examine the quality and utilisation of the cash.
According to him: “A company with substantial cash and low debt has greater flexibility to respond to economic shocks, finance expansion or take advantage of investment opportunities without immediately resorting to expensive borrowing.
“This is particularly relevant in Nigeria where corporate borrowing costs remain relatively high.
“Some companies deliberately retain cash to finance inventories, capital expenditure, acquisitions, dividend payments and other strategic commitments.
“In addition, cash and cash equivalents may include restricted funds or short-term investments that cannot necessarily be deployed immediately.
“This means that shareholders should examine the composition of cash before drawing conclusions about a company’s liquidity.”
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