Foreign
Saudi Arabia’s Future Superpower Partner Not the US
• Saudi Arabia appears to be recalibrating back toward China and Russia after the Iran conflict, with recent high-level meetings focused on expanding energy cooperation.
• The shift reflects a decade-long evolution that began after the 2014-2016 oil price war, when China deepened its influence in Saudi Arabia through investment, energy deals, support for Aramco, and alignment with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic ambitions.
• Riyadh’s confidence in U.S. security guarantees has been shaken by Iranian strikes on key Saudi energy infrastructure during Operation Epic Fury.
Since the replacement of Russia by China as the primary would-be superpower rival to the U.S., Saudi Arabia has sought to balance its relationships with Beijing and Washington — sometimes leaning more one way, and sometimes the other.
Until the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, the U.S. was the core relationship; after the war had finished, it was China and Russia; and then, from the start of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term in office, it was the U.S. again. However, in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury against Iran, this looks set to shift once more back to China and Russia, with a series of high-level meetings between Chinese and Saudi Arabian officials taking place last week. One of these — between the deputy head of China’s National Energy Administration, Song Hongkun, and Saudi Aramco’s Downstream President, Mohammed Al Qahtani — focused on boosting global energy security and bilateral oil and gas cooperation between the two sides. So, how has the global oil market arrived at this point, and what happens next?
The genesis of the current position lies in the financial devastation to OPEC countries of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order.
Before the conflict started, there had been a broad and deep relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia based on a landmark agreement between Washington and Riyadh formulated at a meeting on 14 February 1945 between the then-U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King at the time, Abdulaziz Al Saud. The deal was this: the U.S. would receive all the oil supplies it needed for as long as Saudi Arabia had oil in place, in return for which the U.S. would guarantee the security of the ruling House of Saud and, by extension, of Saudi Arabia. This worked well enough to survive the 1973 Oil Crisis, in which Riyadh led an oil embargo alongside its OPEC brothers against the U.S. and its allies for helping Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. However, it did not truly survive the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, as by then the U.S.’s shale oil sector had become a serious global oil-producing force, making the country much better able to withstand lower-for-longer oil prices than Saudi Arabia and its fellow OPEC members.
Moreover, Washington regarded this, effectively, as a second oil price war instigated by Saudi Arabia as one breach too many of the fundamental relationship agreement of 1945.
Following the financial devastation of 2014-2016 Oil Price War for Saudi Arabia and its OPEC brothers, they had little choice but to admit Russia to the wider ‘OPEC+’ grouping to restore the organisation’s shattered credibility in the global oil markets. China, in turn, was able to leverage the new-found power of its ally into extending its own influence in the Middle East’s leading energy state through a series of wide-ranging agreements made after 2016, and its immediate focus on laying the groundwork for these was a rising star in Riyadh — then-Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). From the first year of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, Saudi Arabia’s government budget went into deficit — to double digit levels of GDP in the first full year of the war — and it stayed in deficit until the end of 2021. At the same time, MbS was not the natural successor to King Salman, with the heir-designate to King Salman being Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, but the young Prince had an idea that he believed would help him progress — an initial public offering (IPO) of Saudi Arabia’s flagship firm, Aramco.
It was his belief, publicly aired in the second half of 2016, that if Saudi Arabia listed 5% of the firm on international stock markets then it would raise at least US$100 billion for the Kingdom in much-needed funds. This figure would also mean a valuation for Saudi Aramco of US$2 trillion, making it by far the most valuable company ever listed in the world, so restoring some of Saudi Arabia’s damaged reputation in the process. MbS also thought that a listing of Saudi Aramco in multiple major financial centres around the world, including the two most prestigious stock exchanges – the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange – would project Saudi Arabia’s presence as an international player in financial markets as a whole and not just in the oil sector. All these reasons looked solid enough on the surface and the senior Saudis agreed to go ahead. However, almost immediately that the process began, questions began to emerge from international investors over the corporate structure of Aramco, the degree to which it would be subject to government control, its valuation, its true oil reserves and spare capacity, and the physical security of its fields, among many others. The upshot was that no serious international investor wanted to become too involved in the IPO and nor did the world’s most prestigious stock markets. That put MbS in a tricky position, as he was the original champion of the idea. However, at precisely that point, China offered to buy the entire 5% of Aramco scheduled to be offered in the IPO. Although the offer was eventually declined, MbS never forgot China’s gesture.
Shortly afterwards, in March 2017, a landmark visit to China by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman took place, during which around US$65 billion of business deals were signed in sectors including oil refining, petrochemicals, light manufacturing and electronics. In August that year, the then-Saudi Vice Minister of Economy and Planning, Mohammed al-Tuwaijri, told a Saudi-China conference in Jeddah that: “We will be very willing to consider funding in renminbi and other Chinese products.” The use of the renminbi was — and remains — a central plank of China’s strategy to subvert one of the key pillars upon which the U.S.’s global dominance is built — the use of the dollar as effectively the global reserve and trade currency, as also detailed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Al-Tuwaijri’s comments came during the visit of high-ranking politicians and financiers from China to Saudi Arabia in August 2017, during which it was also decided that Saudi Arabia and China would establish a US$20 billion investment fund on a 50:50 basis.
According to comments at the time from then-Saudi Energy Minister, Khalid al-Falih, this fund would invest in sectors such as infrastructure, energy, mining and materials, among other areas. In August 2022, at the signing of a multi-pronged deal between Aramco and the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), the president of Sinopec, Yu Baocai, said: “The signing of the MoU introduces a new chapter of our partnership in the Kingdom…The two companies will join hands in renewing the vitality and scoring new progress of the Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] and [Saudi Arabia’s] Vision 2030.” Moving into the fourth quarter of 2022, Saudi Arabia reiterated its commitment to China as its “most reliable partner and supplier of crude oil,” along with broader assurances of its ongoing support in several other areas. This was in line with the earlier comments from Aramco chief executive officer, Amin Nasser that: “Ensuring the continuing security of China’s energy needs remains our highest priority – not just for the next five years but for the next 50 and beyond.”
This, and several similar comments around that time, appeared to confirm that Saudi Arabia had come to regard the U.S. as just another one of its partners — particular in the realm of providing security — in a new global order that would see Beijing and its allies share the leadership position with Washington, before attempting to surpass it. This view appears to have re-asserted itself after what Saudi Arabia — and many of its fellow Middle Eastern states — see as a failure by Washington to safeguard their security and economic interests during the war with Iran. Despite having invested hundreds of billions of dollars over the years in U.S.-supplied defence equipment aimed at providing the Kingdom with a security umbrella against attacks, Iran was able to hit key targets in the country, including the East-West Pipeline, the Manifa and Khurais oil Fields, the Ras Tanura Refinery and several other oil, natural gas, refining, and petrochemical sites stretching from the Eastern Province to Yanbu Industrial City. These successful Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia’s critical energy infrastructure underline to Riyadh that, even on a security basis, the use of the U.S. appears limited. These concerns are heightened by the Kingdom’s broader fears that whatever the U.S.-Iran deal finally turns out to be, it will leave Saudi Arabia in a far more vulnerable position than it was before the war began.
By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com
Simon Watkins is a former senior FX trader and salesman, financial journalist, and best-selling author. He was Head of Forex Institutional Sales and Trading
A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia leaving at least 224 people killed while rescue teams continued searching the collapsed buildings for survivors on Tuesday.
The earthquake struck at 7:34 am local time on Monday, with Cali, Pereira and parts of the Choco region among the worst affected areas.
Authorities warned that the death toll could rise as emergency teams reach more affected communities and assess the extent of the destruction.
Cali authorities reported 35 deaths, while officials in the Risaralda region, where Pereira is located, confirmed at least 40 deaths. Nine people were also reported killed in Choco, two in Caldas and one in Antioquia.
At least 700 people were injured in Valle del Cauca alone, according to President Abelardo de la Espriella, who declared a national state of emergency and said the government’s priority was to rescue people trapped under rubble.
More than 1,600 buildings were reportedly damaged or destroyed, including parts of a historic cathedral in Manizales.
Several upper floors of a hospital in Cali also collapsed, trapping some patients and forcing about 600 others to receive treatment outside amid the debris.
Rescue operations continued overnight and into Tuesday, with soldiers, firefighters, emergency workers, volunteers and relatives searching through collapsed buildings.
In Cali, volunteers formed human chains to remove concrete and other debris by hand, while rescue teams repeatedly stopped to listen for survivors.
Firefighters rescued two women and two children from a collapsed building, while rescuers in Pereira were reportedly in contact with a boy trapped beneath a bakery as cranes were used to remove unstable sections of the building.
Authorities have also deployed engineers, rescue workers and search dogs to Choco, where the scale of the destruction remains unclear because many communities are remote and difficult to reach.
The United States Geological Survey identified San Jose del Palmar, a community of about 4,800 people, as the epicentre. The area is about 400km west of the capital, Bogota.
Colombia’s Geological Service reported 21 aftershocks by late Monday and warned that further tremors were possible.
The rescue effort has been complicated by the geography of Choco, where some communities can only be reached by boat or aircraft.
The government has also imposed nighttime curfews in Cali, Armenia and Manizales, while hospitals in five cities were placed on red alert.
Operations at airports in Pereira, Manizales, Quibdo, Armenia, Cartago and Buenaventura were suspended temporarily to allow structural inspections.
Authorities postponed the Petronio Alvarez Music Festival in Cali, which was scheduled to begin on Wednesday, as well as professional football matches.
International assistance has also begun. The United States announced $15.5m in emergency aid for shelters, food and other relief, while the European Union activated its Copernicus satellite service to support rescue operations.
El Salvador and Mexico also offered to provide rescue teams, medical personnel, supplies and other assistance.
Rescuers are expected to face a critical window in the coming hours as they continue searching for people trapped beneath the rubble.
Traore has opened a new front with Burkina Faso’s Muslim community over arrests.
New legislation and arrests are driving a rift between Burkina Faso’s military government and Muslim scholars.
Captain Ibrahim Traore’s relationship with Muslim leaders has come under strain as his government tightens control over religious affairs.
Burkina Faso’s transitional leader Ibrahim Traore has announced plans to bring back students studying Islamic law in Arab countries
Once backed by influential Muslim scholars, Burkina Faso’s military leader is now facing a growing rift over arrests, new legislation and his campaign against what he describes as religious extremism.
Burkina Faso’s transitional leader, Captain Ibrahim Traore, has sharply escalated his confrontation with influential Muslim scholars, declaring that what he calls “radical Islam” has no place in the country and warning that “the battle has begun” against those he accuses of promoting religious extremism.
Addressing scholars whom he accused of spreading extremist ideas, Traore declared: “If this is your Islam, we will fight it. Extremists must change. If they do not, the battle has begun.”
His remarks underscore a widening rift between the government and parts of Burkina Faso’s Muslim community. Once an important source of support for the military leader, several influential Sunni scholars are now at odds with the authorities over the Religious Freedoms Law, the detention of prominent imams and the government’s campaign against religious extremism.
Traore argued that religion should spread through example rather than coercion or violence. He also questioned why some Muslims opposed the new legislation and warned that imams who use sermons to promote extremist ideas would be suspended.
At the same time, he pledged state support for scholars who advocate what he described as a peaceful interpretation of Islam, while accusing foreign powers of exploiting religion to destabilise Burkina Faso.
Students studying abroad
Traore also announced plans to recall Burkinabe students studying Islamic law in Arab countries, claiming that more than 800,000 were pursuing religious education abroad without acquiring practical professional skills.
He warned that those who refuse to return could risk losing their Burkinabe citizenship.
The announcement followed a government directive issued in late June requiring students seeking to study abroad to obtain prior approval from the Ministry of Higher Education.
Authorities said the measure was intended to ensure overseas study programmes better align with the country’s development priorities.
The tighter controls on religious education came as Burkina Faso’s transitional parliament unanimously adopted the Religious Freedoms Law on June 20.
The government says the legislation is intended to reinforce the state’s secular character. It introduces prison terms and fines for practices that authorities classify as religious abuses, including the forced begging of children and breaches of financial transparency rules by religious organisations.
From ally to adversary
The law deepened already growing tensions between the government and sections of the Muslim community.
In late May, Imam Mohamed Ishaq Kindo, one of Burkina Faso’s most prominent Sunni scholars, was arrested after criticising the draft legislation.
Referring to the arrest and the protests that followed, Traore dismissed the unrest as the work of “a small minority of extremists”.
After worshippers gathered to demand Kindo’s release, authorities closed the largest Sunni mosque in the capital, Ouagadougou, citing public order concerns.
Agence France-Presse (AFP), citing a security source, reported that about 100 of the imam’s supporters were transferred to a military camp for what officials described as “civic training”.
Kindo’s arrest followed the mid-April detention of Imam Mahmoud Barro in Bobo-Dioulasso under similar circumstances. According to the Timbuktu Institute, a Dakar-based think tank specialising in peace and security issues, Kindo’s whereabouts have not been disclosed since the protests were suppressed.
According to the institute, the confrontation extends beyond the Religious Freedoms Law. It marks the breakdown of the tacit understanding that had developed between Traore’s government and influential Muslim scholars, whose backing helped bolster his standing after he seized power.
By turning against former allies, the institute argues, Traore risks weakening an important source of political legitimacy without resolving the security crisis that his government has used to justify its increasingly assertive measures.
An Israeli dimension
Alongside the domestic tensions, Traore recently received Israel’s new ambassador to Burkina Faso, Simon Seroussi, in Ouagadougou to present his credentials.
The meeting followed a report by Africa Intelligence, a Paris-based publication specialising in African political and business affairs, that the ambassador’s accreditation request, submitted in the summer of 2025, had remained pending before being quietly approved.
Traore’s public reception of the ambassador appears to mark a shift from the caution previously shown by his inner circle, which had sought to preserve his anti-Western image. It also comes as Israeli security agencies expand cooperation with members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), the bloc formed by Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, whose governments have expressed interest in Israeli security technology.
As Traore declares that “the battle has begun” against what he describes as religious extremism, while the Religious Freedoms Law takes effect and the fate of detained scholars remains unclear, a broader question emerges: will the government’s efforts to assert greater control over sources of public legitimacy strengthen its authority, or deepen its confrontation with one of Burkina Faso’s most influential social forces?
–Its international code shifts from NRU to NRO
The world’s third-smallest nation has changed its name from Nauru to Naoero; its international code shifts from NRU to NRO
The Pacific island nation of Nauru has officially changed its name to the Republic of Naoero, a move its president says better reflects the country’s language, identity and heritage.
The shift also changes the country’s international code from NRU to NRO, while its people will now be referred to as dei-Naoero, as per reports.
The name is not new to the island itself. In the national language, the country has long been known as Naoero; the international version, “Nauru,” became common largely because foreign speakers struggled with the pronunciation.
The government says the updated name corrects that historical mismatch and restores a traditional identity that was never truly lost.
Why the name changed
President David Adeang first proposed the change in January, saying it would “more faithfully honor” the nation’s heritage, language and identity. Parliament later backed a constitutional amendment in two rounds of voting, and the government then said a public referendum would not be necessary after further discussion.
In the government’s view, the word Naoero already lives in the country’s culture and official symbols. Officials said it appears on the national coat of arms, is used in the community, and is allowed by the constitution, making a referendum unnecessary for what they described as a reclaiming of the nation’s true name.
What changes now
The most visible change is the country’s formal designation: the Republic of Naoero. Along with that, its ISO-style international code is shifting from NRU to NRO, and government aircraft and ships will also be renamed to match the new identity.
The government has already begun asking other countries and international institutions to recognize the change. The United Nations website now lists the country under its new name, and diplomatic websites in Australia, New Zealand, the United States and China have also begun using Naoero.
A small nation with a big history
Naoero is one of the world’s smallest countries by population, with about 12,000 residents. The tiny coral limestone atoll has had a complicated past: it was colonized by Germany, later administered by Australia, and became an independent republic in 1968.
Its modern history has been shaped by phosphate mining, which once brought major wealth but eventually collapsed and pushed the country close to economic ruin in the 1990s. Today, climate change has become its biggest existential challenge, as rising sea levels threaten the low-lying island.
That pressure has prompted the government to seek overseas investment, including through a paid citizenship program designed to help fund relocation efforts for people and infrastructure away from the encroaching ocean.
Part of a wider trend
Naoero’s move fits a broader pattern of countries redefining themselves by restoring native names or dropping colonial-era labels. Eswatini, for example, reverted from Swaziland in 2018, while Turkey asked the United Nations in 2022 to officially use Türkiye, the name long used domestically.
For many countries, these changes are about more than spelling. They are a way to signal sovereignty, cultural pride and a break from names imposed or simplified by outsiders. In Naoero’s case, officials say the change is a symbolic but meaningful step toward renewed national pride.
Why it matters
For a nation this small, a name change can carry outsized significance. It affects how the country is represented on maps, in diplomacy, in shipping, and in global databases, but it also sends a message about identity and self-definition.
The government says the old name became familiar internationally out of convenience, not choice. Reclaiming Naoero, then, is being framed not as a rebrand but as a return to what the nation has always called itself.
(With inputs from AP)
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