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CBN Transitions to Inflation Targeting

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— Urges States to Adopt Fiscal Discipline

By Son Tertsea, Abuja

Even as more funds accrue to sub national governments for development, their reckless fiscal behaviour has intensified via excessive supplementary Budgets, unplanned spending, and unsustainable debt accumulation, prompting the Central Bank of Nigeria CBN to call them to order.

The CBN said this on Sunday through a statement following an engagement with sub-national stakeholders facilitated through the Nigerian Governors’ Forum Secretariat in Abuja.

According to the statement, the Deputy Governor in charge of the Economic Policy Directorate, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi, urged state governments to adopt stricter fiscal discipline to support price stability and ongoing macroeconomic reforms.

He urged “States to reduce reliance on overdrafts and short-term financing, ensure that borrowing decisions align with debt sustainability thresholds, improve budget realism and revenue forecasting, prioritise expenditure, and better synchronise fiscal calendars with prevailing macroeconomic conditions,” the statement said.

Abdullahi described the transition to inflation targeting as a shift towards a more transparent, rule-based, and forward-looking monetary framework that requires close collaboration between the central bank and state authorities.

According to him, while the CBN remains responsible for monetary policy decisions aimed at controlling inflation, fiscal actions by state governments also significantly influence inflation outcomes in a federal system like Nigeria’s.

He warned that inflation targeting largely depends on managing economic expectations, stressing that expansionary fiscal activities by states could weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy signals.

The deputy governor noted that, “In an inflation targeting regime, persistent, unpredictable or expansionary fiscal behaviour at the sub-national level can significantly undermine price stability,”

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He added that the absence of fiscal dominance, where governments pressure the central bank to monetise deficits, remains a major condition for successful inflation targeting, noting that the principle applies to both federal and state governments.

Abdullahi further
outlined four responsibilities expected of state governments under the inflation-targeting framework, including maintaining fiscal discipline and predictability, pursuing responsible borrowing, improving coordination on cash and debt management, and strengthening internally generated revenue mobilisation.

He warned that excessive supplementary budgets, unplanned spending, and unsustainable debt accumulation could trigger liquidity shocks and worsen inflationary pressures.

The deputy governor stressed that inflation targeting should be seen as a collective national commitment aimed at achieving long-term stability, economic credibility, and sustainable growth.

In his submission, the Director of the Monetary Policy Department, Dr Victor Oboh, said inflation targeting is a “win-win framework” capable of benefiting households, businesses, and governments by improving policy credibility and reducing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Oboh noted further that price stability could not be achieved through monetary policy alone, especially in a federal system where state spending, borrowing, and cash flow decisions directly affect inflation and liquidity conditions.

According to him, the engagement was organised to deepen collaboration and mutual understanding between the CBN and state governments regarding the expectations and coordination required for the successful implementation of inflation targeting.

In his goodwill messsge on behalf of the Director-General of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, Dr Abdullateef Shittu, the Executive Director of Policy, Strategy and Research at the forum, Prof Olalekan Yunusa, commended the CBN for involving sub-national authorities early in the transition process.

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He said the move from monetary targeting to inflation targeting reflected a deliberate commitment to price stability, adding that sustainable macroeconomic stability required disciplined coordination across all tiers of government.

The engagement attracted participants from over 20 states, including commissioners of finance and economic planning, accountants-general, permanent secretaries, statisticians-general, and directors, who reaffirmed support for the CBN’s reform agenda and transition to inflation targeting.

Reports indicate that the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory’s debt rose to nearly $5.7bn in fresh external loans in 2025, driving a year-on-year surge in subnational foreign debt despite higher inflows from Federation Account Allocation Committee disbursements.
Data from the Debt Management Office indicated that the combined external debt stock of the 36 states and the FCT increased from $4.80bn as of December 31, 2024, to $5.68bn as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a net increase of $884.66m, or 18.43 per cent year-on-year.
A breakdown of the data showed that 33 out of the 37 subnational entities recorded increases in their external debt positions during the period under review, representing 89.19 per cent of the total, while only four states posted declines, accounting for 10.81 per cent.
The scale of the increase shows a continued reliance on external financing by state governments amid fiscal pressures, infrastructure demands, and rising FAAC revenues.

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Business and Economy

House sets up panel, probe debts owed FG

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National Assembly
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The House of Representatives has constituted an ad-hoc committee to investigate debts owed to the Federal Government by Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), private organisations and other state actors.

The committee led by Hon. Oluwole Oke was appointed following the adoption of a motion sponsored by Hon. Salisu Yusuf and five other lawmakers during plenary.

The House mandated the panel to undertake a comprehensive review of outstanding liabilities owed to the Federal Government, identify all debtors, assess recovery efforts by relevant agencies and recommend practical measures for the recovery of funds.

Earlier, Yusuf raised concern over Nigeria’s growing debt burden and weakening revenue base, warning that the failure to recover monies owed to government was worsening the country’s fiscal pressures.

He disclosed that Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N153.29 trillion as of September 30, 2025, attributing the rise to increased domestic borrowing and continued pressure from currency depreciation.

According to him, domestic debt accounts for more than 53 per cent of the total debt stock, while external debt makes up about 47 per cent, with debt servicing consuming nearly 47.85 per cent of government revenue within the first nine months of 2025.

Yusuf noted that like many countries, Nigeria had adopted borrowing and other fiscal measures in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic to stabilise the economy.

“Most countries around the world, including Nigeria, had recourse to borrowing and other monetary policy tools to address economic challenges,” he said.

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He added that while some of these measures had contributed to relative macroeconomic stability, including improvements in currency performance, greater attention was still needed on revenue recovery.

The lawmaker expressed concern that successive governments had focused more on borrowing and debt servicing, while leaving substantial sums owed to the Federal Government uncollected.

“The Federal Government of Nigeria is owed huge sums of money within and outside the country, including judgment debts,” Yusuf said.

“These funds are held by state and non-state actors, as well as Ministries, Departments and Agencies of government.”

He further recalled the establishment of the Presidential Initiative on Continuous Audit in 2015, designed to strengthen financial oversight and improve accountability in public expenditure.

According to him, the initiative was aimed at enhancing efficiency in revenue management and ensuring proper monitoring of government finances.

Yusuf warned that the continued failure to recover outstanding debts was placing additional strain on public finances and contributing to Nigeria’s fiscal challenges at a time of rising expenditure demands and infrastructure gaps.

Following the adoption of the motion, the House directed the Oke-led committee to submit its findings within four weeks for further legislative action.

The development comes amid growing concerns over Nigeria’s debt sustainability, with rising calls for the Federal Government to prioritise revenue recovery as a means of reducing fiscal pressure without increasing the tax burden on citizens already facing inflation and high living costs.

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Business and Economy

N2.036trn Shared as FAAC March Revenue to FG, States, LGCs

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By Our Reporter

The total sum of N2.036 trillion for March 2026 Federation Account Revenue, has been shared to the Federal Government, States and the Local Government Councils.

Bawa Mokwa, Director of Press Public Relations, said in press release on Wednesday, that the revenue was shared at the April 2026 Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) meeting held in Abuja.

The N2.036 trillion total revenue comprised distributable statutory revenue of N1.320 trillion, distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N515.391 billion and Augmentation of N200 billion.
A communiqué issued by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) indicated that total gross revenue of N2.

364 trillion was available in the month of March 2026. Total deduction for cost of collection was N81.084 billion while total transfers, refunds and savings was N246.872 billion and Augmentation of N200 billion.

According to the communiqué, gross statutory revenue of N1.699 trillion was received for the month of March 2026, which was higher than the N1.561 trillion received in the preceding month by N137.914 billion.

Gross revenue of N664.425 billion was available from the Value Added Tax (VAT) in March 2026. This was lower than the N668.450 billion available in the month of February 2026 by N4.025 billion.

The communiqué added that from the N2.036 trillion total distributable revenue, the Federal Government received a total sum of N789.159 billion and the State Governments received a total sum of N657.596 billion.

The Local government Councils received N468.826 billion, while the sum of N120.759 billion (13% of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting States as derivation revenue.

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On the N1.320 trillion distributable statutory revenue, the communiqué stated that the Federal Government received N632.260 billion and the State Governments received N320.691 billion.

The Local Government Councils received N247.239 billion and the sum of N120.759 billion (13% of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting States as derivation revenue.

From the N515.391 billion distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue, the Federal Government received N51.539 billion, the State Governments received N283.465 billion and the Local Government Councils received N180.387 billion.

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Business and Economy

Capital Goes Where Value is Clear and Nigeria Has That Value – Ojulari

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Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari,
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By Aliyu Musa

The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, has delivered a characteristically direct and pragmatic assessment of Nigeria and Africa’s energy future.

He stated this at the CERAWeek 2026, declaring that the country’s fundamentals are strong, its value proposition clear, and its focus now squarely on execution.

Speaking on the opening day of the world’s premier energy gathering, held under the theme “Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology and Geopolitics,” Ojulari told a global audience of energy leaders, including C-suite executives, energy secretaries and government ministers, that Nigeria’s strategy is grounded in realism, partnership, and disciplined delivery.

“Capital goes where value is clear, and Nigeria has that value,” he stated, setting the tone for a leadership dialogue that outlined a pragmatic approach to balancing the country’s immediate energy needs with its long-term transition ambitions. The GCEO articulated NNPC’s core philosophy with characteristic clarity: “We are not choosing between today and tomorrow; we are funding the future with the present.”

At the fireside chat anchored by Dan Pratt, S&P Global’s Senior Vice President, Upstream Solutions, Ojulari explained that Africa remains dependent on hydrocarbons for revenue and foreign exchange, making sustained upstream production non-negotiable. Additionally, with over 600 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves, gas represents not merely a transition fuel but a strategic economic lever for industrialisation and energy security across the continent.

According to the GCEO, “Nigeria is the reliable destination for energy investment the world needs. The country has positioned itself as a dependable supplier, riding on the established legacies of stable policies, improved energy infrastructure security, partnerships, and, lastly, the orientation of the government. The President has given NNPC the autonomy to act on its behalf and consolidate commercial solutions that are long-lasting.”

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“Balance is not about equal allocation; it is about optimal sequencing,” Ojulari stated, outlining a portfolio where oil sustains value today, gas underpins industrial growth, and transition investments are targeted and disciplined. He further highlighted the critical role of partnerships in de-risking Nigeria’s deepwater assets, noting that global players like Shell and Eni bring not only capital but execution capability, technology, and project discipline—particularly for assets like OPL 245 and other deepwater developments.

According to the oil executive, the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) has now firmly established regulatory certainty, while infrastructure gaps are being closed through targeted investments and security is being strengthened through a more robust architecture. “When the fundamentals are right, partnerships scale naturally,” he added.

Addressing Nigeria’s long-discussed gas potential, the GCEO noted that what is different now is execution discipline. Three key enablers are receiving focused attention: commercial pricing across the value chain, critical infrastructure like the AKK (Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano) pipeline, and bankable contracts that provide investor certainty. On the balance between domestic gas needs and LNG exports, Engr. Ojulari described a dynamic approach of portfolio optimisation—allocating gas where it delivers the highest combined national and commercial value.

The GCEO articulated a clear strategic shift, moving from resource ownership to resource monetisation. He emphasized that unlocking Nigeria’s significant proven but undeveloped reserves requires commercial discipline, competitive fiscal frameworks, and strong partnerships. Deepwater remains a priority because it offers scale, it is less exposed to onshore challenges, and attracts global capital.

CERAWeek 2026, hosted by S&P Global, runs from March 23–27 in Houston, Texas, bringing together over 10,000 global energy leaders, executives, and officials to explore the convergence of energy, technology, and geopolitics.

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